The Russian – Turkish reconciliation and its implications for the region (interview)

Ekho Kavkaza (Echo of the Caucasus) interviewed Turkologist Hayk Gabrielyan on the recent Russian – Turkish reconciliation, who shared his opinion on the matter and its consequences for the South Caucasus.

Meydan TV presents this interview in English for our readers below:


Vadim Dubnov

: Hayk, can you briefly explain to us the objective of the Russia – Turkey rapprochement?


Hayk Gabrielyan

: I believe that the normalization of relations between Russia and Turkey was not unexpected, because these two countries have always needed each other. First off, Russia did not want to jeopardize the “Turkish Stream” gas pipeline project, and of course Russia was in need of the supply of Turkish fruits, vegetables, builders, resorts, etc.

But Turkey gets even more from the normalization of relations with Russia. It has recently found itself in a very difficult position, spoiling its relations with so many countries to the extent that it has narrowed the field of its ability to maneuver on the world stage.

Turkey has lost a lot because of the sanctions and it really wanted to settle its relations with Russia. The economy of both countries are complementary to one another, and Turkey now may have some luck with the help of Russia. In particular, the normalization of relations may prevent the implementation of the Russian project for the Caspian Sea – Persian Gulf channel, which is very harmful, as we know, to the “Istanbul” channel project and has the potential to turn it into a meaningless initiative.

Russia can also help the Turks in influencing the Syrian Kurds to stop their victorious march in the north of Syria. Therefore, the reconciliation was not a surprise. Personally, I was surprised with the behavior of the Russian authorities because, as we know, the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in fact, did not apologize for the destruction of the Russian plane. And according to Russian media, he only once without any address said: “I’m sorry” by which he meant, “I’m sorry for killing the pilot Su-24 Oleg Peshkov.”


V.D.

You have mentioned before that Turkey is trying to return to a doctrine of “no problems with neighbors.” Is reconciliation with Russia a part of that plan?


H.G.

Yes, I’ve written about the fact that Turkey is now returning to the “zero problems with neighbors” policy due to the fact that it has spoiled relations with so many countries – the US, the EU, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Israel, Syria … so the time is ripe for Turkey to return to this policy and hope that they will achieve a degree of flexibility in their international political maneuvers in return.


V.D.

Will the return to this policy include the normalization of relations with Europe and the resumption of more or less serious negotiations and concessions to Europe, including a deal on the refugee crisis?


H.G.

I do not think that Turkey will make concessions to Europe. This, above all, is related to the question of changing its anti-terrorism legislation. In this transaction Turkey will continue to blackmail Europe with the refugee factor, but I do not think it will make any concessions to Europe.


V.D.

: How may it affect Armenian-Turkish relations, in particular the issue of Turkey’s reconciliation with Russia?


H.G.

: I do not think it will have any relevance. I do not see any ground for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey because in this question the position of Azerbaijan is very important to Turkey – I have written about this issue as well. As we know, Azerbaijan  is the main supplier of gas to Turkey, which buys its cheapest gas from Azerbaijan.

…The rapprochement between Turkey and Russia may positively affect the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh because I think that Turkey in early April was partially responsible for provoking and aggravating the situation in Nagorno Karabakh in order to show Russia that it is necessary to take into account their interests in the region as well, and to show Russia that it is not the only player in the South Caucasus.

This dynamic is comparable to Russia’s engagement in Syria, when Russia, while under Western sanctions, decided to make its presence in the region a reality with which the West would have to deal. As a result, the West began to communicate more with Russia, and to consult on issues related Syria.


V.D.:

How will the reconciliation between Turkey and Russia affect their cooperation (or lack there of) in Syria?


H.G.:

I believe there will be greater coordination and cooperation in Syria now between these two countries. Cavusoglu has stated that Turkey and Russia will try to unite their positions on this issue. In my opinion, Turkey now wants to intervene in Syria but Russian troops have so far prevented them in this matter. There will undoubtedly be further negotiations on the matter.


V.D.:

Do I understand correctly that Russia has, for the most part, resigned itself to the fact that there is no future for the Assad regime? Or, on the contrary, will Turkey somehow adapt to Russia’s position?


H.G.:

No, I don’t believe that Russia has resigned itself to this fact, because Russia would like to maintain its important bases in Syria. Turkey of course would love for Assad to go, but I do not think that Russia or Iran will let that happen any time soon.

ГлавнаяNewsThe Russian – Turkish reconciliation and its implications for the region (interview)