Another lecture was held in the main office of the ReAl (Republican Alternative) Movement as part of the Republican School project. The topic of the lecture was “Political and Economic Prognoses for 2017”, reports Radio Liberty.
Natiq Jafarli and Erkin Qadirli, members of the ReAl movement leadership, provided an overview of political and economic developments which took place in the country over the past year, and then gave their prognoses regarding what might be expected in 2017.
Both noted that it is possible that the economic and political problems observed in 2016 will continue to be a pressing concerns in the coming year.
“But the economic crisis, which might deepen in 2017, must become a sort of stimulus and a chance to overcome the closed – off political system that has reigned in the country for many years. The creation of an open ‘political stage’ is a necessity, and it is precisely the government elite who are, first and foremost, interested in this”, emphasized Erkin Qadirli.
The 2016 referendum has not been fully digested, since there does not exist a mechanism for political communication between the government and the opposition, the ruling elite and society.
“In the public conscious, the present year might objectively be remembered in two political events: the ‘April war’ and the referendum for introducing amendments to the constitution. Reform of the country’s Fundamental Law, in its traditional, theoretical and practical, political and legal meaning has the goal of shoring up the nation-state and the national ideology. On the other hand, sometimes constitutional transformations are simply defined by the particularities of an entrenched political regime and environment. The 2016 referendum is not understood because, as I will note yet again, there does not exit a mechanism for political communication between the government and the opposition, the ruling elite and society,” explained Gadirli.
In discussing the hostilities in April of this year on the line of contact between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops, he said that on the whole the population reacted to the advance of our army with enthusiasm, since a ‘defeatist stereotype’ has already long prevailed in society. “Nevertheless, it is difficult to evaluate the ‘April war’ in and of itself. There arose a sense that the population had moved from ‘negative stress’ to ‘positive stress’, since the question ‘why didn’t the armed forces go farther?’ is still a pressing issue. Truth be told, for me the reaction of the West and the international community to this ‘strange war’ has ambiguous,” he added.
The International Bank has reserves of just four billion dollars, and they simply ‘cannot be touched’, since this is a financial guarantee in obligations with foreign partners.
In speaking of the economic problems that are worrying the population, which include a gradual but inevitable ‘third devaluation of the manat’, a reduction in the number of jobs, including in government structures, the reduction of citizens’ solvency, and an acceleration of inflation, Natiq Jafarli directed attention to the following: “For the first time in many years, the Azerbaijani government itself acknowledged that 2016 ‘was difficult’. True, they admit it in their own, unique rhetoric, first pointing to the successes of the Azerbaijani economy, and then in a roundabout manner, not hiding the fact that the present reality in economy and in the country’s financial and banking sector has placed very serious issues before them.” Eloquently articulating the official figures that provide a picture of the state of affairs in the Azerbaijan’s economy, Jafarli listed off several statistics: in 2016 Azerbaijan’s GDP fell by 4%. This is the worst indicator in the CIS, and on the world scale we are one of the ‘five outsiders’, which includes Venezuela and Brazil. By way of contrast, in neighboring Georgia and Armenia this indicator grew during the past year. The Azerbaijani leadership also acknowledged ‘double inflation’. This indicator is currently at 12%, while foodstuffs have become 10% more expensive. In relation to the dollar, the manat has depreciated by 16%. But it’s well-known that the population and entrepreneurs are most interested in how to purchase currency. Moreover, if we look to next year, according to the most modest calculations, 12 billion dollars need to be ‘injected’ into the Azerbaijani market. But the International Bank has reserves of only 4 billion dollars, and they simply ‘cannot be touched’, since this is a financial guarantee in obligations with foreign partners. But in 2017 the State Oil Fund can allocate only four billion dollars. Taking into account the unstable price for oil and for energy resources in general, where will the necessary eight billion dollars be found!?”
The characteristics of the state budget for the coming year also don’t give cause for optimism. Well, and it’s axiomatic that an advantageous ‘business climate’ must be created in order to attract foreign investment.
In responding to questions about the effectiveness of the government’s proposed ‘road map’ as a ‘guide’ to invigorating the economy, Natiq Jafarli once more reminded that, although the strategic directions are correctly mapped out in the concept of developing the fundamental economic sectors (the agrarian sector, tourism, petrochemical industry), the question time and again depends on finances. “The banking segment, because of the growth of unpaid credit, the devaluation of the manat and a lack of dollars will, to put it lightly, not encounter any lesser problems in 2017 than in the past year. The characteristics of the state budget for the coming year also don’t give cause for optimism. Well, and it’s axiomatic that an advantageous ‘business climate’ must be created in order to attract foreign investment. And here it’s enough that we remember our ‘monopolistic paradise’ and questions regarding the independence of the Azerbaijani judicial system”, Jafarli spread his hands in a shrug.
During the event there took place a discussion regarding prisoners of conscience and the question of political prisoners. The lecturers and audience members reached a united opinion that the court verdict regarding the youth activists Mamed Bayramov and Qiyas Ibrahimov, and the decisions of the Appeals and Supreme Courts regarding the case of Ilgar Mammadov, chairman of the ReAl movement, which ignored the demands and recommendations of a number of international organizations and authorities, point out all-too-common problems with human rights and the guarantees of political competition, pluralism and tolerance in 2016 as well.
Hamid Khaliq
