This article was originally published in Russian by
Billionaire and Republican party presidential candidate Donald Trump emerged the victor of the 58th US presidential elections on Tuesday evening. In total, he received more than 288 votes from the electoral college. Experts from the countries of the South Caucasus, however, say that the results of the US presidential elections would have had little impact on the United States’ policy towards the nations of the South Caucasus either way.
Trump won 29 American states. Hillary Clinton received 215 votes from the electoral college, and won 17 states, reported CNN.
Presidential candidates are required to win 270 electoral college votes out of a total of 538 in order to win the election.
Georgia will continue its pro – Western path.
Relations between Georgia and the USA are unlikely to change, regardless of who is sitting in the Oval Office of the White House, thinks Georgian political analyst, Gela Vasaladze.
In a recent article, Vasaladze wrote that in her 2012 visit to the countries of the South Caucasus, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laid the groundwork for the Euro – Atlantic integration of Georgia, including for the decisions of the Whales Nato Summit where Georgia’s inclusion in the organization was discussed.
“The current authorities of Georgia will continue their tactical maneuvering between Moscow and Washington, which began in 2012. This will include an attempt to not rub Moscow the wrong way, which incidentally also suits Washington.”
As concerns Donald Trump, Vasaladze says that the billionaire visited Georgia in 2012, where he presented his “Trump Tower” project in Batumi, during the course of which he made friends with the third president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili. He was also awarded the Georgian order of “Siyaniya” (Radiance).
In 2011, it came out that Donald Trump was planning to build apartments and housing spaces for the ‘creme de la creme’ of Georgian society. Trump first got interested in the Georgian real estate market in April of 2010, when he met Saakashvili who was on tour in the United States.
Gia Volskiy, one of the leaders of the current ruling party of Georgia, “Georgian Dream”, said on election day that the president of the US, whether it would become Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, would in all likelihood continue former US policy towards the country.
Political expert Nodar Kharsiladze shares his opinion, and believes that the United States will try to continue a balanced course, so as not to steer off path.
The Armenian Diaspora Supported Clinton from the Beginning
For Armenia, a Clinton victory would have been more beneficial and pleasing as concerns questions of security, thinks political scientist Stepan Safaryan.
“Armenia has been assigned an important role in communications between Iran and Europe”, said Safaryan, assessing a series of changes in policy towards the end of Barack Obama’s presidency.
Vasaladze added that as president, Trump will most likely try to simply lessen Russia’s influence in Armenia, but by no means will he attempt to try and completely tear Armenia away.
“The resolution of the Karabakh conflict is unlikely to be greatly affected by the victor of the US presidential elections”, said Vasaladze.
The Interest of the USA Towards Azerbaijani Energy Projects Will Remain Strong
Azerbaijan is a familiar country for Trump, who has put together several investment projects in the country. He understands the investing atmosphere there, which plays an important role in energy security”, believes the head of the Russian version of the Azerbaijani publication, Trend, Elmira Tariverdiyeva.
“Another positive aspect is that, most likely, the Trump administration will be focussed on the domestic issues of the USA, and will be less likely to interfere in the processes of foreign states, as happened under the Obama administration”, says Tariverdiyeva.
However, Gela Vasaladze commented on Trump’s business interests in Azerbaijan, and stated that it is unlikely that the president elect would allow his personal business interests to severely interfere in the process of international politics.
“The foreign policy of a country such as the United States of America is defined and structured by institutions – not by personal interests. It’s another thing that many Republican party members have contacts and other interests in Azerbaijan, and that the majority of the members of the American “Group of Friendship with Azerbaijan” are from the Republican party.”
The USA has been forming its international foreign policy towards the countries of the South Caucasus for several decades. And while the style of approach might differ, the fundamental basis of these relationships is not likely to see radical changes.