In an interview with Voice of America, the former US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Richard Kauzlarich, shared his thoughts on the recent arrests in Azerbaijan and the future of US – Azerbaijan relations.
Meydan TV presents this interview below for our English readers.
Voice of America (VOA):
Mr. Ambassador, we have recently witnessed the rise of a new wave of political arrests in Azerbaijan. In your opinion, what motives stand behind these arrests?
Richard Kauzlarich (RK):
Well first of all I have to say that, yes, in the past year we have indeed witnessed a growth in the arrests of members of the political opposition and the independent media, in addition to other forms of pressure from the government.
On one hand, this is nothing new. On the other, we’ve grown used to Ilham Aliyev’s freeing of political prisoners after his recent trip to America. But why is this all happening just now? In order to answer this question, we have to look at events going on in Turkey. The attempted coup in Turkey resulted in a massive loss of life. In addition to this, we must look at the proposed changes to the constitution. The government will try to silence voices raising critical questions in the run up to the September 26th constitutional referendum.
In the context of the attempted coup in Turkey, the government is seemingly able to justify all of its steps against the opposition and the independent media.
VOA:
The opposition has harshly criticized the proposed changes to the constitution. What do you think about these amendments?
RK:
Frankly, I don’t understand this, especially the government’s position on property rights. I am also concerned about the creation of the position of vice – president and the proposed changes on the age limitations of lawmakers.
It would appear that these changes would propose to permanently ensconce the regime and its relatives in the government; the question of who will be in power in the government will permanently disappear.
Immediately after the referendum, the government will be able to call for early elections based on the new constitution.
Even if I can’t point to any specific examples, I look at all these scenarios as a real possibility.
VOA: In the past few days, the Azerbaijani government has started a new round of persecution against followers of Gulen. Are there many followers of his movement in Azerbaijan? And if there are, are they of any real danger to the government?
RC:
Interesting question. Fethullah Gulen is in America, but his movement is global, especially his educational institutions and activities. I remember when I became the ambassador to Bosnia – Herzegovina and moved from Baku to Sarajevo, there was an active Gulen school there, and it is of no surprise that there are followers of Gulen in Azerbaijan. In the 1990s, under the protection of Heydar Aliyev’s government, these schools were highly active and were subject to little if any pressure from the government.
As concerns the threat to the government from Gulen supporters, only they can answer to that, but I don’t believe that Gulen supporters in Azerbaijan are set directly in opposition to the government. I believe that all of this is taking place under pressure from Turkey. The concerning thing is that the media and the press under the supervision of the government have begun to accuse America of promoting revolution in Azerbaijan itself.
It’s hard for many people to believe such ideas, but there is much false information circulating about Gulen’s activities in the USA and in Azerbaijan, and this does not serve to maintain good relations between all the countries in question, including Turkey. This all reminds me of the rhetoric espoused by Ramiz Mehdiyev and his supporters in 2014 concerning America’s stance on Azerbaijan.
VOA:
Azerbaijan has begun to face very real problems in terms of external debt and a deficit of dollars in the country. What steps must the government take in order to address these problems?
RK:
I look at this problem from the point of view of an economist and diplomat that has spent much of his career looking at the economic problems of energy – producing countries.
The situation in the country was of course better when oil was sold at the price of 100 dollars per barrel. Now, the problems of the economy have become more complex because oil is selling for 50 dollars a barrel. Now, independent of countries such as Venezuela and the Gulf states, Azerbaijan must implement serious reforms.
The economy must be direct away from energy production. I am concerned about the lack of real economic measures. The economy is still dependent on energy exports which are declining in volume and in value.
If no serious measures are taken, social and economic problems will become entirely inevitable. Economic crises aren’t solved by words and meetings, but by actions.
VOA
:
Do you still consider Azerbaijan a geopolitical, strategic ally of the USA?
RC:
I never saw Azerbaijan as a strategic ally of the USA. Though when I was an ambassador, we did have our mutual interests. Our relationship was largely focussed on the questions of energy and the regulation of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. We tried to assure Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and independence, even when this was a rather delicate question in the early stages of the country’s independent history.
A strategic partnership is one that shares common values and interests. While our values of democracy, human rights and the market economy continue to rise, the values of Azerbaijan’s government continue to differ. It would appear that Azerbaijan is attempted to mimic Vladimir Putin’s style of government – opposition to the USA, autocratic administration and resistance to integration into the global economy.
It is difficult to build a strategic partnership without common values. The short answer to your question is that I don’t see a strategic alliance. Could it happen? Maybe, but this is a question of time and choices. The choice is Baku’s, not Washington’s.
VOA: There are only two and a half months left before the presidential elections in the US. What changes can we expect in the new presidential administration of the USA?
RK:
I find it hard to make predictions about elections, especially ours. I don’t know who will win, and I treat surveys with suspicion. At the same time, I’d like to add that independent of who will become the president, the new administration will have its own, different priorities, including for the countries of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan will have a special place in this new policy. Be it the Republicans that win or the Democrats, American society will force the new administration to clarify its priorities.
In the past few decades, we have come to a bipartisan consensus on the importance of the NATO alliance, democracy and international support for human rights. Democrats will not challenge Republicans on this agreement.
Differences here will be more fundamental in character. If Clinton wins, her foreign policy will differ from that of Obama’s; I do not suppose that she will continue in the same vein, and her approach will be very different.
There will be differences, and the Azerbaijani government must understand this.
At the same time, Azerbaijan must justify and prove that it can be a strategic partner to the USA. Currently, one of the criteria for this development would be for the Azerbaijani press to refrain from pointing at the US as an instigator of unrest and revolution in the country. Such activities will not endear Azerbaijan to the new president.
