{"id":172049,"date":"2015-12-21T13:07:09","date_gmt":"2015-12-21T13:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/manatin-ucuzlasmasinin-son-heddi-deyil\/"},"modified":"2015-12-21T13:07:09","modified_gmt":"2015-12-21T13:07:09","slug":"manatin-ucuzlasmasinin-son-heddi-deyil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/manatin-ucuzlasmasinin-son-heddi-deyil\/","title":{"rendered":"“Manat\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n son h\u0259ddi deyil”"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n Samir \u018fliyev: \u201cRusiya v\u0259 Qazax\u0131stan iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 z\u0259if inki\u015faf etmi\u015f Az\u0259rbaycanda bunun f\u0259sadlar\u0131 da a\u011f\u0131r olmal\u0131 idi v\u0259 olacaq da\u201d
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\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

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\n Az\u0259r Mehdiyev: \u201c\u018fg\u0259r kursu \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcz ist\u0259diyiniz kimi m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirirsinizs\u0259, bunu niy\u0259 “\u00fcz\u0259n kurs” adland\u0131r\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z ki?\u201d
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\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

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\n \u00a0\u201cT\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcfl\u0259 d\u0259 olsa dem\u0259liyik ki, g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n devalvasiya ba\u015f verdi\u201d.
\n <\/b>
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n Bunu iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 Samir \u018fliyev \u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 rejimini \u015f\u0259rh ed\u0259rk\u0259n deyib. Bu bar\u0259d\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131qlama yayan iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 deyir ki, ehtiyatlar t\u0259zyiq alt\u0131nda davam g\u0259tir\u0259 bilm\u0259zdi:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cManat b\u00fct\u00fcn valyutalara, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n dollara m\u00fcnasib\u0259td\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259rini 47,6 faiz itirdi. Haz\u0131rda 1 dollar\u0131n r\u0259smi m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si 1 manat 55 q\u0259pikdir. Valyutad\u0259yim\u0259 m\u0259nt\u0259q\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 is\u0259 daha bahad\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n idi ki, a\u00e7\u0131qlamalar\u0131m\u0131zda bunun ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259yini, sad\u0259c\u0259 zaman m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si oldu\u011funu qeyd etmi\u015fdik. H\u00f6kum\u0259t \u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259y\u0259 ke\u00e7id bar\u0259d\u0259 dan\u0131\u015fanda art\u0131q devalvasiyan\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131na he\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259 yeri qalmam\u0131\u015fd\u0131. Bir s\u00f6zl\u0259, m\u00fczakir\u0259 zaman v\u0259 forma bar\u0259d\u0259 ged\u0259 bil\u0259rdi.\n<\/p>\n

\n A\u00e7\u0131qlamalarda qeyd etmi\u015fdik ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 qoruyacaq v\u0259 uza\u011f\u0131 5 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r \u0259rim\u0259sin\u0259 imkan ver\u0259c\u0259k. Son m\u0259lumatlara \u0259sas\u0259n, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n ehtiyat\u0131 5,5 milyard dollardan da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc. Bel\u0259 t\u0259zyiq alt\u0131nda ehtiyatlar \u00e7ox davam g\u0259tir\u0259 bilm\u0259zdi\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Samir \u018fliyev deyir ki, FED u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259l\u0259rini qald\u0131randa bunun birba\u015fa t\u0259sirinin olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancaq h\u00f6kum\u0259tin q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 tezl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259yini qeyd etmi\u015fdik. H\u0259r bir halda insanlar\u0131 aylarla \u00fcz\u0259n hadis\u0259 ba\u015f verdi:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cQazax\u0131stan v\u0259 Rusiya t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259rdi ki, \u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259y\u0259 ke\u00e7id \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259, ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259, k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015fman\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Biz d\u0259 f\u0259rqli ssenari olmad\u0131. Ancaq Rusiya v\u0259 Qazax\u0131stan iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 z\u0259if inki\u015faf etmi\u015f Az\u0259rbaycanda bunun f\u0259sadlar\u0131 da a\u011f\u0131r olmal\u0131 idi v\u0259 olacaq da.\n<\/p>\n

\n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank fevral devalvasiyas\u0131ndan sonra manat\u0131n t\u0259dric\u0259n yum\u015fald\u0131lmas\u0131 siyas\u0259tini h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irm\u0259li idi. Ancaq bunu etm\u0259k \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259 yenid\u0259n manata s\u00fcni n\u0259f\u0259s verm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fd\u0131. N\u0259tic\u0259si art\u0131q b\u0259llidir. \u018fg\u0259r manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si t\u0259dric\u0259n ucuzla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lsayd\u0131, indi k\u0259skin devalvasiyaya ehtiyac qalmazd\u0131\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

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\n Ekspertin fikrinc\u0259, \u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259y\u0259 ke\u00e7id manat\u0131n d\u00fcnya bazarlar\u0131ndak\u0131 prosesl\u0259r\u0259 h\u0259ssasl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racaq: \u201cNeft ucuzla\u015fd\u0131qca, dollar bahala\u015fd\u0131qca, manat\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259yik. Ancaq bu, tam \u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 olmayacaq. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank ehtiyatlar\u0131 hesab\u0131na imkan daxilind\u0259 manat\u0131n k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131na imkan verm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. H\u0259r bir halda sabit m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 d\u00f6vr\u00fc bitdi. Manat\u0131n avroya n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si nec\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015firdis\u0259, dollara n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si d\u0259 eyni qaydada d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259k.\n<\/p>\n

\n Manat\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n son h\u0259ddi deyil. Bundan sonra da proses davam ed\u0259c\u0259k. Ola bilsin m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n zaman k\u0259siyind\u0259 manat\u0131n bahala\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015f versin. Ancaq bu m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti xarakter da\u015f\u0131yacaq. \u018fsas tendensiya ucuzla\u015fma istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 olacaq\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Samir \u018fliyev hesab edir ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t \u0259halini, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank is\u0259 banklar\u0131 qorumal\u0131d\u0131r. \u201cBanklar bu prosesd\u0259n z\u0259rb\u0259 alacaqlar. Bunun neqativ t\u0259siri g\u0259l\u0259n ilin yaz aylar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayaraq hiss olunma\u011fa ba\u015flayacaq. Bazar\u0131 t\u0259rk ed\u0259n banklar\u0131n say\u0131 artacaq. Problemli kreditl\u0259r artacaq, \u0259halinin kredit \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015find\u0259 l\u0259ngim\u0259l\u0259r geni\u015fl\u0259n\u0259c\u0259k. Bank sektorunda ixtisarlar daha geni\u015f v\u00fcs\u0259t alacaq.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u018fsas problem inflyasiya olacaq. H\u00f6kum\u0259t yen\u0259 d\u0259 inzibati yolla qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 alma\u011fa ba\u015flayacaq. Ancaq bu, \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259km\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Qiym\u0259tl\u0259r artacaq. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t devlavasiyan\u0131n t\u0259sirl\u0259rini minimuma endirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259cili g\u00f6mr\u00fck rejimini yum\u015faltmaq bar\u0259d\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u0259lidir. Bu sferada inhisar aradan qalxmal\u0131d\u0131r\u201d \u2013 dey\u0259 ekspert vur\u011fulay\u0131b.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 Az\u0259r Mehtiyev d\u0259 deyir ki, aylarla s\u00f6yl\u0259dikl\u0259ri proqnoz \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frultdu:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cNeftin qiym\u0259ti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fckc\u0259 v\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259nin neft g\u0259lirl\u0259ri azald\u0131qca, m\u00fcst\u0259qil ekspertl\u0259r manat\u0131n devalvasiyas\u0131n\u0131n qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u0259y\u0259nd\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t onlar\u0131 “\u0259hali aras\u0131nda panika yaymaqda” su\u00e7lay\u0131rd\u0131. H\u0259tta fevral devalvasiyas\u0131ndan sonra da manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin 1.05 s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u0259n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 bildirmi\u015fik. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank v\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t is\u0259 israrla bildirirdi ki, h\u0259r \u015fey n\u0259zar\u0259t alt\u0131ndad\u0131r, he\u00e7 bir devalvasiya olmayacaq. H\u00f6kum\u0259tin bu q\u0259d\u0259r israrlar\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259, habel\u0259 fevralda at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f add\u0131mdan \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 bank sektorunun h\u0259l\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259 bilm\u0259diyini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131b h\u00f6kum\u0259tin q\u0131sa bir m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 ikinci bir a\u011f\u0131r add\u0131m ata\u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndan, y\u0259ni k\u0259skin devalvasiyaya ged\u0259c\u0259yind\u0259n \u00e7\u0259kin\u0259c\u0259yini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrd\u00fck. Bu add\u0131m\u0131n \u0259n tezi yanvarda olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n idi. Amma bu q\u0259rar bir daha g\u00f6st\u0259rdi ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t komandas\u0131n\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti proqnoza g\u0259lmir\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Ba\u015f ver\u0259n hadis\u0259ni \u00f6z Facebook s\u0259hif\u0259sind\u0259 \u015f\u0259rh ed\u0259n iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 deyir: \u201cAB\u015e-da FES u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini qald\u0131rma\u011fa haz\u0131rla\u015fd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tam 1 il \u0259vv\u0259ld\u0259n b\u0259yan edir, ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar v\u0259 m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259r apar\u0131r v\u0259 c\u0259miyy\u0259ti buna haz\u0131rlay\u0131r. U\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sinin qald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 is\u0259 t\u0259dric\u0259n, add\u0131m-add\u0131m, m\u0259qs\u0259dy\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilir. He\u00e7 bir panikaya imkan verilmir. Buna c\u0259miyy\u0259ti idar\u0259 etm\u0259k deyirl\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u00d6lk\u0259mizd\u0259 is\u0259 tamamil\u0259 f\u0259rqli yana\u015fma h\u00f6km s\u00fcr\u00fcr: siyas\u0259t qapal\u0131 apar\u0131l\u0131r, c\u0259miyy\u0259t aldad\u0131l\u0131r, \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 h\u0259r \u015feyin n\u0259zar\u0259t alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, he\u00e7 bir probleml\u0259rin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u0259yan edilir, \u0259hali iqtisadi savads\u0131zl\u0131qda v\u0259 yersiz panikaya d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 ittiham olunur, sonra is\u0259 bird\u0259n k\u0259skin add\u0131mlar at\u0131l\u0131r…\n<\/p>\n

\n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank \u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 siyas\u0259tin\u0259 ke\u00e7diyini b\u0259yan edir v\u0259 d\u0259rhal manat\u0131n dollara n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n kursunu 1.05-d\u0259n 1.55-\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259ldir. Amma he\u00e7 bir izahat yoxdur ki, niy\u0259 1.15 yaxud 1.35 yox, m\u0259hz 1.55. Bu m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 hardan ortaya \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131? Kim hesablad\u0131? Kim q\u0259rar verdi?\n<\/p>\n

\n Demirsiniz ki, “\u00fcz\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259y\u0259 ke\u00e7irik”, onda manat\u0131n “cilov”unu burax\u0131n, manat \u00f6z\u00fc t\u0259dric\u0259n kursunu taps\u0131n. \u018fg\u0259r kursu \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcz ist\u0259diyiniz kimi m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirirsinizs\u0259, bunu niy\u0259 “\u00fcz\u0259n kurs” adland\u0131r\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z ki?\n<\/p>\n

\n Budurmu “analoqsuz inki\u015faf” v\u0259 “g\u00fccl\u00fc iqtisadiyyat”? Q\u0259rb \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri bel\u0259 inki\u015fafam\u0131 pax\u0131ll\u0131q edir?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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