{"id":167420,"date":"2015-04-02T19:04:29","date_gmt":"2015-04-02T19:04:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/hokumet-2015-ci-ilin-dovlet-budcesini-deyisecekmi-tehlil\/"},"modified":"2015-04-02T19:04:29","modified_gmt":"2015-04-02T19:04:29","slug":"hokumet-2015-ci-ilin-dovlet-budcesini-deyisecekmi-tehlil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/hokumet-2015-ci-ilin-dovlet-budcesini-deyisecekmi-tehlil\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00f6kum\u0259t 2015-ci ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sini d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259kmi? (T\u0259hlil)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n Fondun transfertl\u0259rinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 25%-d\u0259n az olmayan h\u0259dd\u0259\u00a0ixtisar\u0131\u00a02015-ci ilin\u00a0b\u00fcdc\u0259 qanununun
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\n 2015-ci\u00a0ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin g\u0259lirl\u0259ri\u00a0neftin h\u0259r barrel\u00a0\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 90 dollar \u0259sas\u0131nda m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilib. \u0130lin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n is\u0259 orta qiym\u0259t\u00a0t\u0259xmin\u0259n\u00a055 dollar \u0259traf\u0131nda olub. Qiym\u0259tin proqnozdan k\u0259skin f\u0259rql\u0259nm\u0259si (h\u0259r barrel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259xmin\u0259n 35 dollar) d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259\u00a0yenid\u0259n bax\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 z\u0259ruri edirmi?\u00a0Son g\u00fcnl\u0259r mediada bu y\u00f6nd\u0259 m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259r gedir…\n<\/p>\n

\n \u00dcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259,\u00a0“B\u00fcdc\u0259 sistemi haqq\u0131nda” Qanunun 15.5-ci madd\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, cari ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si haqq\u0131nda Qanuna \u0259lav\u0259 v\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r edilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qanunvericilik t\u0259\u015f\u0259bb\u00fcs\u00fc qaydas\u0131nda\u00a0Milli M\u0259clis\u00a0qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 qald\u0131r\u0131la bil\u0259r.\u00a0B\u0259s,d\u0259yi\u015fiklik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas h\u00fcquqi t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259r hans\u0131lard\u0131?\n<\/p>\n

\n 1)\u00a0Qanunun 23.5-ci madd\u0259sind\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n olundu\u011fu kimi, d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin icras\u0131 zaman\u0131 ilin h\u0259r hans\u0131 r\u00fcb\u00fcnd\u0259n birinin yekununa g\u00f6r\u0259, \u00a0faktiki daxilolmalar r\u0259smi t\u0259sdiql\u0259nmi\u015f\u00a0r\u00fcbl\u00fck proqnozdan 20 faizd\u0259n \u00e7ox k\u0259narla\u015fma olarsa, b\u00fcdc\u0259 icras\u0131 Milli M\u0259clisin m\u00fcvafiq komit\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 m\u00fczakir\u0259 edilir. Qanunda m\u00fctl\u0259q qaydada g\u00f6st\u0259rilmir, amma \u0259g\u0259r birg\u0259 m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259r \u0259sas\u0131nda b\u00fcdc\u0259nin d\u0259yi\u015film\u0259si z\u0259ruri hesab edil\u0259rs\u0259, 23.3-c\u00fc madd\u0259y\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259,\u00a015\u00a0may\u00a0–\u00a015 oktyabr\u00a0aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qanun layih\u0259si parlament\u0259 t\u0259qdim edil\u0259 bil\u0259r.\u00a0\u00a0M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, 2015-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259 m\u0259daxili 19.4 milyard manat proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r bu m\u0259bl\u0259\u011f b\u00fct\u00fcn r\u00fcbl\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 proporsional b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcbs\u0259 v\u0259 proqnoza 100% \u0259m\u0259l edils\u0259, 1-ci r\u00fcbd\u0259 4,850 milyard manat m\u0259daxil olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Lakin proqnoz 20% v\u0259 daha \u00e7ox k\u0259sirl\u0259 icra olunubsa, y\u0259ni t\u0259xmin\u0259n 3.9 milyard manatdan az m\u0259daxil t\u0259min edilibs\u0259, art\u0131q parlamentin komit\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 m\u00fczakir\u0259 ba\u015flamal\u0131d\u0131r;\n <\/div>\n<\/p>\n

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\n 2)\u00a0Qanunun 23.4-c\u00fc madd\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 is\u0259 ilin 1-ci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yekunlar\u0131na (iyun ay\u0131n\u0131n sonuna) g\u00f6r\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259ri v\u0259 k\u0259sirinin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si \u00fczr\u0259 faktiki daxilolmalar \u00fczr\u0259 proqnoz g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rd\u0259n\u00a030 faiz az olduqda, \u00a0yen\u0259 d\u0259 23.3-c\u00fc madd\u0259y\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259,\u00a0oktyabr\u00a015-d\u0259n gec olmayaraq\u00a0d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 qanun layih\u0259si parlament\u0259 t\u0259qdim edilm\u0259lidir.\u00a0M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, \u0259g\u0259r yar\u0131millik g\u0259lir proqnozu 9.2 milyard, k\u0259sir is\u0259 800 milyon manat proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131bsa, lakin\u00a0faktiki g\u0259lirl\u0259r 6.450 milyard manatdan, k\u0259sirin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u0259daxil 560 milyon manatdan az olarsa, qeyd olunan m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 qanunu d\u0259yi\u015fdirilm\u0259lidir.\n <\/div>\n<\/p>\n

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\n Lakin \u0259g\u0259r r\u00fcbl\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 20%-lik, yar\u0131millik is\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 30%-lik limit ke\u00e7ilmirs\u0259, h\u00f6kum\u0259t parlamentin i\u015ftirak\u0131 olmadan b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rini d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn s\u0259lahiyy\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 malikdir. S\u00f6hb\u0259t hans\u0131 h\u00fcquqi normalardan gedir?\u00a0“B\u00fcdc\u0259 sistemi haqq\u0131nda” Qanunun 18-ci madd\u0259sin\u0259\u00a0(4,\u00a05 v\u0259 6-c\u0131 b\u0259ndl\u0259ri)\u00a0g\u00f6r\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u00a0m\u00fcdafi\u0259 olunan x\u0259rc madd\u0259l\u0259ri istisna olmaqla\u00a0t\u0259sdiq olunmu\u015f b\u00fcdc\u0259 ay\u0131rmalar\u0131 h\u0259ddind\u0259 funksional t\u0259snifat\u0131n b\u00f6lm\u0259l\u0259ri daxilind\u0259, iqtisadi t\u0259snifat\u0131n b\u00f6lm\u0259, k\u00f6m\u0259k\u00e7i b\u00f6lm\u0259, paraqraflar, madd\u0259 v\u0259 yar\u0131mmadd\u0259l\u0259ri aras\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r etm\u0259k h\u00fcququna malikdir.\n<\/p>\n

\n B\u0259s,\u00a0haz\u0131rk\u0131 tarix\u0259 olan durum\u00a0–\u00a0b\u00fcdc\u0259 daxiolmalar\u0131n\u0131n faktiki s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u00a0may\u0131n 15-d\u0259k b\u00fcdc\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u00fcquqi \u0259sas\u00a0verirmi? M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 bundad\u0131r ki, ilin birinci r\u00fcb\u00fcn\u00fcn n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rini h\u00f6kum\u0259t a\u00e7\u0131qlam\u0131r, y\u0259qin ki, \u0259n az\u0131 yax\u0131n 20-25 g\u00fcnd\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131qlamayacaq da.\u00a0\u018fg\u0259r g\u0259lirl\u0259rin r\u00fcbl\u00fck proqnozdan 20% az daxil olmas\u0131 problemi yoxdursa, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin b\u00fcdc\u0259ni\u00a0h\u00fcquqi bax\u0131mdan nec\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r ki?\n<\/p>\n

\n M\u0259lumat \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn deyim ki, 2006-2014-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259 3 il istisna olmaqla (2009, 2013, 2014-c\u00fc ill\u0259r) \u00a0d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si daima il \u0259rzind\u0259 parlament vasit\u0259sil\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdirilib. Lakin bu d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rin ham\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcdc\u0259nin ixtisar\u0131 deyil, art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 v\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259tin yeni b\u00fcdc\u0259 \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259ri \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259sil\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 olub. \u00a0M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, 2009-cu ild\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u0259lir\u0259ri 12.177 milyard manat t\u0259sdiql\u0259ns\u0259 d\u0259, faktiki icra 84.8% (10.326 milyard manat) olmi\u015fdu. Lakin h\u00f6kum\u0259t g\u0259lirl\u0259rin azalmas\u0131na proporsional olaraq parlamentin i\u015ftirak\u0131 olmadan x\u0259rcl\u0259rin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 15% ixtisar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fc h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irmi\u015fdi. 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 d\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259r 15%-d\u0259k ixtisar edildi, amma h\u00f6kum\u0259t bunu \u00f6z\u00fc h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irdi.\n<\/p>\n

\n B\u0259s ilin 1-ci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259nin parlament vasit\u0259sil\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdirilm\u0259si, daha do\u011frusu, ixtisar edilm\u0259si n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 reald\u0131r? \u018fg\u0259r neftin qiym\u0259ti indiki s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 qalarsa v\u0259 ya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 yenid\u0259n baxmas\u0131 bir halda m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr: Neft Fondu n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan 10.4 milyard manat transferti\u00a0az\u0131\u00a025-30% ixtisarla h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irsin. \u00c7\u00fcnki ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, dig\u0259r m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259r \u2013 g\u00f6mr\u00fck v\u0259 vergi orqanlar\u0131 Neft Fondunun potensial olaraq azala bil\u0259c\u0259k transfertl\u0259rini kompensasiya etm\u0259k g\u00fcc\u00fcnd\u0259 deyil. Bel\u0259 ki, G\u00f6mr\u00fck Komit\u0259si v\u0259 Vergil\u0259r Nazirliyinin m\u0259daxil proqnozu 2014-c\u00fc ill\u0259 eyni olsa da, bu ilin ilk 2 ay\u0131nda bu 2 qurumdan b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 daxilolma 2014-c\u00fc ilin yanvar-fevral aylar\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n orta hesabla 100 milyon manat az olub. \u018fg\u0259r bu azalma meyli qalarsa, 2015-ci ild\u0259 g\u00f6mr\u00fck v\u0259 vergi orqanlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 m\u0259daxili proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan 8.6 milyard manata qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 8 milyard manat t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259 bil\u0259r. Y\u0259ni bu \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 Fondun transfertl\u0259rinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 25%-d\u0259n az olmayan h\u0259dd\u0259\u00a0ixtisar\u0131\u00a02015-ci ilin\u00a0b\u00fcdc\u0259 qanununun d\u0259yi\u015fdirilm\u0259sini qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n B\u0259s,\u00a0neftin qiym\u0259tinin ilin sonunad\u0259k \u0259n az\u0131 indiki s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 qalaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259dqird\u0259 Neft Fondunun transferl\u0259rinin ixtisar\u0131 n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 reald\u0131r?\n<\/p>\n

\n 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 neftin orta illik qiym\u0259tinin 100 dollar oldu\u011fu \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 Neft Fondunun b\u00fcdc\u0259si 16 milyard dollardan bir q\u0259d\u0259r az oldu. Bu il is\u0259 orta illik qiym\u0259t 55 dollar civar\u0131nda olsa, Fondun b\u00fcdc\u0259 m\u0259daxili 9 milyard dollardan (t\u0259xmin\u0259n 9.5 milyard manat) \u00e7ox olmayacaq. Fondun bu ilki b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin 12.3 milyard manat proqnoz edildiyini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, \u00a0dem\u0259li Fonda \u0259lav\u0259 olaraq 3 milyard manat (2.85 milyard dollar) laz\u0131m ola bil\u0259r. Bel\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fiklik h\u00f6kum\u0259tin q\u0259rar\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r \u2013 Fondun aktivl\u0259rind\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259 olaraq 3 milyard dollar g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcr, yoxsa Fondun b\u00fcdc\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda transfert ehtiyatlar\u0131 qay\u00e7\u0131lan\u0131r? \u018fg\u0259r ilin ind\u0259n sonrak\u0131 d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u00a0d\u00fc\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, Fondun ehtiyat aktivl\u0259rind\u0259n daha \u00e7ox m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fd\u0259 istifad\u0259y\u0259, yaxud Fondun 2015-ci il b\u00fcdc\u0259 \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259rini daha \u00e7ox ixtisar etm\u0259y\u0259 ehtiyac yaranacaq.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u018fg\u0259r ehtiyatlardan aktivl\u0259rd\u0259n istifad\u0259 olunacaqsa, dem\u0259li, d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259 yenid\u0259n baxma\u011fa ehtiyac olmayacaq \u2013 h\u00f6kum\u0259t \u00f6lk\u0259ninin valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201c\u0259ritm\u0259kl\u0259\u201d 2015-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259 \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259rini d\u0259 problemsiz yerin\u0259 yetir\u0259c\u0259k. Yox, \u0259g\u0259r Fondun transfert \u00f6hd\u0259liyinin ixtisar\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 q\u0259rar olacaqsa, d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin d\u0259 \u201cqay\u00e7\u0131lanmas\u0131\u201d qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz olacaq. Lakin \u201cqay\u00e7\u0131lanma\u201d \u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131n\u0131n parlamentin i\u015ftirak\u0131 il\u0259 olub-olmamas\u0131 transfert ixtisar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olacaq.\u00a0Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yuxar\u0131da qeyd etdiyim kimi, Fondun\u00a0transfertl\u0259rinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 25%-d\u0259n az olmayan h\u0259dd\u0259 ixtisar\u0131 ba\u015f verm\u0259lidir.\u00a0Fondun\u00a0transfertl\u0259rinin 15- 20%-lik ixtisar\u0131 h\u0259ddind\u0259 d\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 qanununa parlament vasit\u0259sil\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fiklik edil\u0259 bil\u0259r: bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 2015-ci ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si k\u0259sirinin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n (qiym\u0259tli ka\u011f\u0131zlar\u0131n yerl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si, \u00f6z\u0259ll\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259 v\u0259 s.) v\u0259saitin daxil edilm\u0259si m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmas\u0131n.\n<\/p>\n

\n Q\u00fcvv\u0259d\u0259 olan h\u00fcquqi normalardan \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f ed\u0259r\u0259k, 2015-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259 qanununa m\u00fcmk\u00fcn d\u0259yi\u015fiklik imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131m. Amma unutmayaq ki, b\u0259z\u0259n h\u00f6kum\u0259tin siyasi q\u0259rarlar\u0131 v\u0259 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 qanunlardan y\u00fcks\u0259kd\u0259 dayan\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

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\n \u00a0Devalvasiya h\u00f6kum\u0259tin i\u015fini d\u0259 xeyli y\u00fcng\u00fcll\u0259\u015fdirdi:\u00a0Neftin qiym\u0259tinin 50-55 dollar olaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259dqird\u0259 Neft Fondunun\u00a0g\u0259lirl\u0259ri bu il 8.5-9 milyard dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259nir. Manat\u0131n k\u00f6hn\u0259 m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sil\u0259 bu maksimum 6.5-7 milyard manata, indiki m\u0259znn\u0259si il\u0259 9-9.5 milyard manata b\u0259rab\u0259rdi.\u00a0S\u00f6hb\u0259t \u0259n az\u0131 2-2.5 milyard dollar izafi qazancdan gedir.\n<\/p>\n

\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fondun transfertl\u0259rinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n 25%-d\u0259n az olmayan h\u0259dd\u0259 ixtisar\u0131 2015-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259 qanununun<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":22116,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-167420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-xeberler","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nH\u00f6kum\u0259t 2015-ci ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sini d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259kmi? 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